Context
- The Ramsar site is a key biodiversity hotspot in the Caribbean, but under pressure from human and climatic forces
- The site would benefit from expansion into the East Caicos
- Evidence needed to highlight the benefits of the additional protection
- We show the importance of East Caicos to nature and climate change mitigation
Outcomes
- Our SENCE tool was used to model biodiversity, carbon storage, potable water, and storm surge vulnerability
- As well as the ecological networks of four key habitats
- We examined the opportunities for enhancing these services
- These models were projected into the future using climate change predictions, to evaluate its impact on the environment
Benefits
- Evidence about the functions of the whole land/seascape will help guide local planning decision
- The wetlands will be maintained long-term despite a changing climate, due to the enhanced knowledge of what contributes to their resilience.
- Data provided is already being used by local and international stakeholders in East Caicos
Context
East Caicos is a pristine island in the Turks and Caicos Islands, home to vibrant coral reefs, expansive mangroves, and rich wetlands.
Climate change poses significant challenges to these ecosystems. Higher temperatures will lead to coral bleaching, reduced rainfall will strain water supplies, and rising sea levels threaten low-lying areas. These changes not only impact the environment, but also put the vital services these ecosystems provide at risk.
This project highlights the importance of expanding the Ramsar site to include East Caicos, preserving its ecological resilience and natural beauty as part of this internationally significant reserve.
What we did
Working primarily with the Department of Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR) in the Turks and Caicos Government, as well as our other partners University of Exeter, Marine Conservation Society, and JNCC, Environment Systems modelled four key ecosystem services (biodiversity, carbon storage, water filtration, storm surge vulnerability) and ecological networks (native forest, mangroves, coral, and wetlands) using our long-established SENCE tool.
The project also involved modelling and mapping opportunities to enhance the four key services, as well as identifying areas for the establishment, restoration, or management of climax communities to create larger, more connected networks.
All these layers were combined with the latest 60-year climate change projections and multiple habitat scenarios, to illustrate the varying impacts of targeted conservation management versus limited resources in the future.
Results
Our evidence underscores the importance of East Caicos’ habitats, from ridge to reef, and their role as a connected ecosystem. This small island is not just a hotspot of biodiversity; it also plays a vital role in climate change mitigation for the entire island group. We have shown how East Caicos is part of an extensive network of coral, mangrove, and wetland habitats that stretches over 60 km—approximately the distance from the City of London to Reading! These habitats provide essential services such as coastal protection, water filtration, and carbon sequestration, which are crucial for the health of both local communities and the broader environment.
Looking ahead, our models project the potential impacts of unchecked development and reduced conservation resources, in response to rising sea levels, increasing temperatures, and decreased rainfall from climate change. Without proactive measures, the delicate balance of this ecosystem could be severely disrupted, leading to a loss of biodiversity, and increased vulnerability to climate-related hazards.
Collectively, this suite of data illustrates how climate change could profoundly affect the natural environment from ridge to reef. Multiple habitat scenarios highlight the positive outcomes of implementing targeted conservation management, demonstrating how strategic efforts can enhance ecosystem resilience. Conversely, they also reveal the detrimental effects of unchecked development and the erosion of protective natural barriers.
By prioritising conservation, we can safeguard the vital services that these habitats provide and ensure the long-term sustainability of East Caicos and its unique ecosystems.
