Summary
- Climate change is already causing problems for coffee production in Colombia.
- Land suitability modelling can identify climate vulnerable farming areas for targeted mitigation.
Outcomes
- Areas of coffee growing regions that are most susceptible to climate impacts are located.
- The causes of changes in land suitability have been identified.
Benefits
- The approach can be applied to crops, trees, and natural habitats in any location.
- Modelling can be customised for specific crop varieties and to reflect regional variation growing conditions around the world.
- The approach can be used in decision-support tools.
- Climate mitigation planning at various scales, from regional to national is enabled.
Context
Climate change is already causing price volatility and reduced yields for arabica coffee farmers. A study, supported by STFC Climate Services, used data and modelling to assess how climate change is predicted to impact coffee-growing areas in Colombia between now and 2100. With this knowledge, supply chains can better target preparations for climate impacts and ensure the continued effective production of coffee.
What we did
Environment Systems assessed the likely effects of climate change on arabica production over the next 80 years under differing climate scenarios.
Predicted effects of changes to temperature and rainfall characteristics were modelled for specific crop varieties. The analysis reflects regional growing conditions and takes account of factors that are unaffected by climate change, such as slope and altitude.
Results
The study identifies areas in the coffee growing region that may be adversely affected, remain unchanged, or potentially improve in terms of the growing conditions for the most commonly grown varieties of arabica in Colombia.
The results are being used by partner, Trade-in-Space in their platform Sustainimaps. Each coffee farm monitored within the region is assigned a risk score depending on the projected environmental impact of climate change.
The study demonstrates the importance of international commitments to meet net zero targets. Overall, more land becomes unsuitable for coffee production, and more so if climate change is not adequately controlled.
Where land becomes suitable for arabica, environmental designations and competing land use may preclude coffee production.